IDC predicts that global generative AI smartphones will grow by 360% in 2024, with a CAGR of 70% expected by 2028.

According to IDC's latest forecast, global shipments of generative AI (GenAI) smartphones are expected to grow by 363.6% year-over-year in 2024, reaching 234.2 million units, which will represent 19% of the overall smartphone market in 2024. The smartphone industry is poised for transformative change.

IDC defines GenAI smartphones as devices that use a system-on-a-chip (SoC) capable of leveraging a neural processing unit (NPU) to run GenAI models on the device more quickly and efficiently, using int-8 data types and achieving a performance of 30 tera operations per second (TOPS) or higher.

Despite challenges such as extended upgrade cycles and economic uncertainty, GenAI features on smartphones will drive upgrades and present significant opportunities for vendors and app developers. The substantial growth in 2024 is expected to continue into 2025, with GenAI smartphone shipments projected to grow by 73.1% year-over-year. The forecasted period will likely see continued double-digit growth. By 2028, IDC predicts that GenAI smartphone shipments will reach 912 million units, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78.4% from 2024 to 2028.

IDC's Global Senior Research Director, Nabila Popal, stated, "The rapid integration of GenAI into smartphones is unprecedented in mobile history, with market penetration expected to exceed 60% within the first three years. However, the most significant impact of this evolution is anticipated to occur in 2026, when mid-range devices are expected to adopt the technology, marking a major leap towards GenAI mainstream adoption. While it is too early to predict all the use cases that will emerge in the coming years, one thing is certain: GenAI will fundamentally change how we interact with smartphones."

Although GenAI smartphones may initially be limited to flagship devices in the first couple of years, future developments are expected to be even more exciting. As phones capable of running GenAI become more widespread, the possibilities for more personalized and proactive AI assistants will grow. Driven by consumer demand, app development, and overall industry growth, this evolution is expected to make the next decade one of the most exciting periods for the smartphone market.

IDC's mobile research director, Anthony Scarsella, said, "GenAI smartphones are inevitable and are set to become the next major product offering in the industry. Following triple-digit growth in 2024, the market will see four consecutive years of double-digit growth as manufacturers look to integrate GenAI features into their device offerings. Initially, cost will remain a significant barrier, as many powerful chipsets are expensive and primarily available in ultra-premium markets. However, over time, IDC believes that as competition between device manufacturers and AI applications intensifies, these components will enter the mid-range market and more affordable models."

This IDC report, "Worldwide Generative AI Smartphone Forecast, 2024–2028: July 2024," provides the latest five-year forecast for global GenAI smartphone shipments, segmented by operating system. The forecast leverages data from IDC's Global Mobile Quarterly Tracker and is supplemented by extensive, structured interviews with major device vendors and various secondary data sources.