[TrendForce Insights] Humanoid Robots at a Crossroads: Component-Centric Strategies vs. Full-System Expansion

1. 2026 Set to Be a Turning Point for Humanoid Robot Commercialization

TrendForce forecasts that 2026 will mark a critical transition from development to commercialization for humanoid robots. Global shipments are expected to exceed 50,000 units, representing over 700% year-on-year growth, as vendors shift focus from demonstrations to real-world deployment.

2. Japan Prioritizes Core Component Innovation Over Full-System Rollouts

Japanese manufacturers are strengthening competitive barriers by advancing transmission systems, reducers, sensors, precision joints, and control platforms. While humanoid robots drew attention at iREX 2025, most exhibits remained centered on industrial and collaborative robots, reflecting Japan's near-term emphasis on mature industrial applications with predictable ROI. Longer term, eldercare is expected to become Japan's strongest humanoid robot use case, driven by labor shortages and high care facility density.

3. Taiwan Aligns with Component-Centric Strategies, Growth Expected Post-2027

Taiwan's humanoid robot ecosystem is gaining momentum through government-backed initiatives and industry exhibitions. The island's strengths in mechatronic integration, transmission components, sensors, intelligent screws, and machine vision position it as a key component supplier. Robot joints are evolving from traditional servo motors into highly integrated drive modules, enhancing product value and suitability for humanoid robots, with significant growth potential expected after 2027.

4. U.S. Players Shift Focus from Movement to System-Level Deployment

The U.S. humanoid robot industry has moved beyond showcasing mobility toward practical validation and scenario-based deployment. Leading companies are prioritizing operational stability, energy efficiency, and real-time AI inference. TrendForce identifies 2026 as a decisive year for U.S. vendors to prove sustainable applications in manufacturing, logistics, and home services, enabling a transition to large-scale commercialization.

5. China Pursues Dual Paths of Mass Adoption and High-End Differentiation

China's humanoid robot market is defined by diverse application scenarios and tiered pricing strategies. Low-cost models are driving pilot deployments and early consumer exposure, while higher-end players focus on healthcare, rehabilitation, companionship, and automotive manufacturing. The key challenge in 2026 will be balancing low-cost scalability with high-value differentiation, while accumulating data and application experience to support long-term competitiveness.

Overall Insight

Global humanoid robot development is entering a critical inflection point: Japan and Taiwan are building defensible advantages through component innovation, while the U.S. and China accelerate full-system deployment and scenario validation. The outcomes in 2026 will shape the industry's long-term competitive landscape.

Source of Information: Twlo TA