IDC Forecast: Replacement Cycles and the Emergence of AI PCs to Drive Modest Growth in the PC Market for 2024

According to the latest results from IDC’s (International Data Corporation) "Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker" research, despite some improvement in economic conditions and the emergence of new personal computers equipped with neural processing units (NPU), also known as AI PCs, the global traditional PC market is expected to remain flat in 2024, with shipments reaching 260.2 million units. The global market forecast is hindered by challenges in the Chinese economy, where high inventory levels are expected to persist in the short term.

Excluding China, the global PC market is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2024, while recovery in China's PC market is not expected until the second half of 2025.

In other regions, several common factors will drive PC shipments in 2024:

• Renewal Cycles in the Education Market: It is expected that 29.6 million PCs will be shipped to the education sector. While the budgets are not as robust as they were during the COVID-19 pandemic, many PCs purchased during that time are now due for replacement. However, lower budgets mean that the refresh cycle will be spread over several years, rather than seeing a significant peak in a short period, as was the case during the pandemic.

• Windows Update Cycle: With Windows 10 support ending in late 2025, a PC replacement surge is expected to begin in the second half of 2024.

  
  

In the consumer market, IDC expects global shipments to decline by 1.1% in 2024. However, excluding China, the consumer market will grow by 1.6%. Factors such as rising interest rates and demand for other devices like smartphones will impact growth in the consumer segment.

In addition to replacement cycles, the introduction of AI PCs powered by Qualcomm's latest chips, and new components from AMD and Intel in the second half of the year, are expected to boost shipments in the near term. However, in the long run, AI PCs are unlikely to be the primary driver of shipment growth, but they are expected to raise the average selling price (ASP) of PCs.

Jitesh Ubrani, Research Manager for IDC’s Mobility and Device Trackers, stated: "While the current hype around AI devices seems somewhat unfounded due to the lack of clear use cases for business and enterprise users, these devices will bring significant shifts to the computing landscape over the next few years by offering content generation and productivity enhancements. However, consumer adoption may take longer, as it is not straightforward to convey the benefits of on-device AI versus cloud-based solutions."

Linn Huang, Vice President of Research for Devices and Displays at IDC, added: "Microsoft’s recent announcements at its Build conference have accelerated competition in the AI PC space. This is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the industry’s long-term vision for AI PCs: these devices, leveraging generative AI, will be able to automate, support, and inspire users. Eventually, AI will become ubiquitous in PCs. In the meantime, we expect the share of AI PCs (those equipped with NPUs) in the market to grow from about one-fifth this year to nearly two-thirds by 2028."

Notes:

• Traditional PCs include desktop computers, notebooks, and workstations, but exclude tablets and x86 servers.

• Detachable tablets and slate tablets are part of IDC’s Personal Computing Device Tracker, but are not mentioned in this press release.

• Shipment figures include units delivered to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are calculated based on the company/brand sold.

• IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker collects detailed market data from over 90 countries. The study includes data such as historical and forecast trend analysis.